Hi friend – Rob here.

Today in Salmon Theory+: a summary of 'Alchemy', by Rory Sutherland.

(As voted by the always trustworthy Friends of Salmon Theory!)

Three reasons i love this book:

1. It's Rory Sutherland's machine gun tone, except in written form
2. Therefore, if your brain synapses like going wild (✋), it's a cognitive treat
3. And it's packed with loads of validation if you're not always, erm, logical

Let's get into it.

📝 TL;DR:

1. Treat testing and learning as a series of tiny things
2. Mine prospects’ minds for deeper meaning
3. Don’t let a negative go to waste
4. Look for substitutes not just competitors
5. Start projects by guessing fast and wildly

​You can buy 'Alchemy' here.

1. Treat testing and learning as a series of tiny things

This lesson becomes brutally clear once you run direct marketing channels.

The good news is that you can do small scale experiments and work out where the bottlenecks are.

For example, when promoting Salmon Theory+, i'm asking myself questions like:

• Is it more effective to lead with social proof? (probably)
• At what stage do i reassure people through a testimonial? (unsure yet)
• Is email more effective than actually talking to people? (nope; do things that don't scale, etc.)

So what might this look like in your circumstances?

What sorts of small tests you can do with a sample of customers to see if there are results?

People glorify testing and learning as if it's a big thing, i'd argue treat it as a tiny thing.

Tiny enough that a) you don't need to get board approval b) if it fails, the business is still ok c) but if it succeeds, yay upside!

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2. Mine prospects' minds for deeper meaning

One of my favourite mantras after reading Rory's work: someone being irrational doesn't mean they're being illogical.

If we only see what people do, we will insert our own assumptions about why they do it, which creates knowledge gaps.

But once we mine for how they felt about something, or what's frustrating about something, you get a different view.

For example:

• A prospective B2B customer is interested in your product or service, but keeps asking for information and delaying a decision
• You might think this is irrational, because surely if they're interested then they are willing to invest, so it makes little sense to you
• Except this person is 1) new to the job so their first big bet matters 2) have a heavily scrutinising boss who is a bit of a micro manager

This is completely fictional, except also it probably isn't, but you see how this splits irrational behaviour from illogical one?

This person is being logical because it's how they respond to fear of failure in a new job, and this manifests in what we see as "irrational behaviour".

So how can you mine for deeper meaning in your own world?

Ask customers how they're feeling about something (good and especially bad), before simply asking them what they want to do next.

You'd be surprised how asking about feelings (oooh scary) may unlock a new way to help people justify buying your thing after all.

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3. Don't let a negative go to waste

This is a fab example of spinning a negative into a positive.

Now, to be clear: often your most compelling foot forward is to lean on your strengths, and reinforce them over time to build relative differentiation.

That said, there are instances where spotting a perceived weakness might be a useful way to present your product or service in a way that stands out.

• Simpler services → clients only pay for what they need
• Slower delivery times → everything's custom-made
• Lo-fi game graphics → nostalgic experience

There's actual evidence out there for the effectiveness behind brands flaunting their flaws.

And a deep truth that if you acknowledge a flaw upfront, people are more likely to believe what you say next.

So, what's your weakness-that-turns-out-could-be-a-strength?

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4. Look for substitutes not just competitors

I once worked with a multi-national gym group to do some customer segmentation and value proposition stuff.

We asked the usual questions: ideal audience, main competitor set, sources of brand, product or service advantage.

But one thing that quickly became apparent is that they shouldn't just worry about stealing share from other gyms or fitness clubs.

Instead, we should also think about how to differentiate the value of going to this gym relative to, for example, simply going to a yoga studio.

So it was important to position their offering against competitors (other gyms) but also substitutes (things that make you feel healthy).

This wider competitive context, of course, applies across other categories too.

An edtech startup (also) competes with a highly curated newsletter feed.

A vegan food startup (also) competes with food identity politics.

Netflix, famously, said they compete with sleep.

(Black Mirror much?)

So i always like asking myself and clients now:

1. Who are our competitors?
2. Who are our substitutes?

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5. Start projects by guessing fast and wildly

When i start a project, i like to instinctively get to a list of hypotheses as fast as possible.

Because this will be the last time i can look at things through the lens of that rare breed – a consumer of something, not a consultant on it.

As soon as i start researching, i'm progressively getting 'tainted' by documented knowledge, and that's where groupthink can settle.

Of course, research is important, but it's more important to research based on specific hypotheses, vs just "seeing what's out there".

You want to prove or disprove your instincts, but for that to happen you need to have instincts to direct you in the first place.

Especially when you're doing a strategy sprint (a thing i'm doing more of), you want to operate on hunches, hypotheses and heuristics, not just data.

Because here's the dirty truth about data: none of it's really objective.

Anything you can find data for, i can probably find data against, and vice-versa.

In a world where data of all kinds is abundant (and with AI, even more so), what gains a premium is cultivating craft, instinct and taste.

So when starting a new project, don't try and get to "what's the one thing?" just yet.

Start with:

1. "How many things could it be?"
2. Write them down in their simplest form (thicccc sharpies!)
3. Shop them around (with colleagues, customers, clients, peers)
4. Methodically eliminate the ones that are not quite right

Chances are you'll get somewhere fast.

📝 TL;DR:

1. Treat testing and learning as a series of tiny things
2. Mine prospects’ minds for deeper meaning
3. Don’t let a negative go to waste
4. Look for substitutes not just competitors
5. Start projects by guessing fast and wildly

​You can buy 'Alchemy' here.